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Video: Higher metals prices explained

May 9, 2022

Jeff Christian, managing partner at the CPM group, calls for a recession by 2024, which will be accompanied by higher metals prices and a strong US dollar. This is the definition of stagflation.

“Supply tends to be less responsive to interest rate changes, so the Fed can try to quell demand and cool inflationary pressure, but it really is beyond the scope of the Fed policy to try to reduce those supply constraints, both in terms of supply production and supply delivery. And those things have been compounded by the Zero Covid policy in China, by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and by a variety of other things too, so you have a lot of supply push, pushing inflation higher and the Fed really doesn’t have a lot of power to control that portion of the economy.”

Jeff Christian, managing partner at the CPM group

This applies to oil as well. See stagflation chart.

https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx/status/1523651255377162241

Bottom line: I don’t think the market liquidation of growth stocks changes anything. I’m buying (more accurately holding) commodities and other hard assets. The time for growth stocks isn’t now unless you’re prepared to pick survivors and build a stake with a 36-60 month time horizon.

Filed Under: Notes and Concepts Tagged With: commodities, inflation, metals

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Investor. Marketing Expert. Don’t buy any stock because I mentioned it. Boxer, award-winning reporter, author in a different life. Ex-BNN, 680News, CTV News etc

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sultanameerali Sultan Ameerali @sultanameerali ·
15h

Seemed like the right book to pull off the shelf given the state of the world. Give me a few days and I’ll be able to spew uninformed bank hot takes with the best of them.

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tristinhopper Tristin Hopper @tristinhopper ·
29 Mar

It's rather incredible that you can run up a $50 billion deficit amid relatively good economic times, and military, health care, housing and any number of other basic metrics remain a disaster, and will remain so into the future.

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econguyrosie David Rosenberg @econguyrosie ·
28 Mar

Canada’s budget gets a big fat F. The tax bite expands. Spending out of control – an added $42bn in the next 5 yrs brings the cumulative burst since 2021 to $345bn! FY24 deficit’s to balloon to $40bn from last Fall’s estimate of $30.6bn and debt/GDP ratio up to 43.5% from 42.4%.

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sultanameerali Sultan Ameerali @sultanameerali ·
28 Mar

$SDE.TO is paying out $9.50/share. This was an easy buy at ~$4.50/share. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spartan-delta-corp-announces-1-110000284.html

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reuterscommods Reuters Energy and Commodities @reuterscommods ·
28 Mar

China's 2023 crude oil imports set for 6.2% rise, but risks prevail - column by @ClydeCommods https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-2023-crude-oil-imports-set-62-rise-risks-prevail-russell-2023-03-28/

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