I had to make a major correction to the Clean Seed Capital writeup. I've been thinking of this like a synthetic licensing play for so long I just wrote it like that. The corrected version makes it clear that Mahindra is building the Mini Max smart seeders on Clean Seed's behalf through a white label agreement. Mahindra and other dealers in various countries take care of sales/distributions. The whole setup allows CSX to leverage its IP without the capex/opex spend that comes with setting up its own manufacturing capacity and sales network.
So, just a clarification on KGCRF. Each share of KGCRF guarantees the holder 0.133 of a KGC share at the time of production on Great Bear, right? The current value of that works out to $2.93 or so and yet it is only trading for $1.03. Why the difference in value and current price?
I did notice that "the Contingent Consideration will be payable in connection with Kinross’ public announcement of commercial production at the Dixie project, located in Red Lake, Ontario, PROVIDED THAT A CUMULATIVE TOTAL OF AT LEAST 8.5 MILLION OUNCES OF MINERAL RESERVES AND MEASURED AND INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCES have been publicly announced by Kinross for the project. The CVRs are transferable and have a term of 10 years."
So I guess they have not yet reached the 8.5 million ounce figure, which is probably why the rights are selling for the current price as opposed to their true value based on the current stock price. I guess there is a possibility they could expire worthless.
I'm wondering if KGC would have any incentive to try to keep the published resource figure below this amount in order to cause these rights to expire worthless.
I'm not sure what the current figure of published resources is, but I found a 2.7 million figure as of September. '24 So what are the chances this figure grows to over 8.5 million ounces by the time production is scheduled to start in 2029? The rights have a 10 year period before expiration, but not sure what the expiration date is.
The entire move in the Kinross share price, not to mention the future prospects for the company, are tied to Dixie. The minimal dilution from the CVRs (I'm putting it at 8-9 million shares) is not worth punting production announcements to 2032. For what it's worth, I believe they hit the 8.5 million ounce number, but I also have plans to sell before 2032.
The high-level ARE thesis is the earnings power of utilities and nuclear are overshadowed by the money-losing LSTK projects that are coming off the books (Metrolinx, Gordie Howe bridge). That said, the Concessions and O&M portfolio provides a long-life future annuity stream. Aecon should be trading at $40.
I had to make a major correction to the Clean Seed Capital writeup. I've been thinking of this like a synthetic licensing play for so long I just wrote it like that. The corrected version makes it clear that Mahindra is building the Mini Max smart seeders on Clean Seed's behalf through a white label agreement. Mahindra and other dealers in various countries take care of sales/distributions. The whole setup allows CSX to leverage its IP without the capex/opex spend that comes with setting up its own manufacturing capacity and sales network.
Big miss. I forgot to add a link to the Banyan drill results. Connecting the two pits at AurMac. https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1346-tsx-venture/byn/186599-banyan-intersects-1-44-g-t-au-over-33-2m-within-104-4m-at-0-82-g-t-au-and-extends-mineralization-between-deposits-aurmac-project-yukon-canada.html
So, just a clarification on KGCRF. Each share of KGCRF guarantees the holder 0.133 of a KGC share at the time of production on Great Bear, right? The current value of that works out to $2.93 or so and yet it is only trading for $1.03. Why the difference in value and current price?
I did notice that "the Contingent Consideration will be payable in connection with Kinross’ public announcement of commercial production at the Dixie project, located in Red Lake, Ontario, PROVIDED THAT A CUMULATIVE TOTAL OF AT LEAST 8.5 MILLION OUNCES OF MINERAL RESERVES AND MEASURED AND INDICATED MINERAL RESOURCES have been publicly announced by Kinross for the project. The CVRs are transferable and have a term of 10 years."
So I guess they have not yet reached the 8.5 million ounce figure, which is probably why the rights are selling for the current price as opposed to their true value based on the current stock price. I guess there is a possibility they could expire worthless.
I'm wondering if KGC would have any incentive to try to keep the published resource figure below this amount in order to cause these rights to expire worthless.
I'm not sure what the current figure of published resources is, but I found a 2.7 million figure as of September. '24 So what are the chances this figure grows to over 8.5 million ounces by the time production is scheduled to start in 2029? The rights have a 10 year period before expiration, but not sure what the expiration date is.
The entire move in the Kinross share price, not to mention the future prospects for the company, are tied to Dixie. The minimal dilution from the CVRs (I'm putting it at 8-9 million shares) is not worth punting production announcements to 2032. For what it's worth, I believe they hit the 8.5 million ounce number, but I also have plans to sell before 2032.
Do you have any good report/ thesis on Aecon?
The high-level ARE thesis is the earnings power of utilities and nuclear are overshadowed by the money-losing LSTK projects that are coming off the books (Metrolinx, Gordie Howe bridge). That said, the Concessions and O&M portfolio provides a long-life future annuity stream. Aecon should be trading at $40.
Thanks Sultan!